CA Lanus — Estudiantes de La Plata: Win probabilities, 22.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 75.4% |
| 12 | 67.3% | |
| X2 | 57.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 43.8% / 56.2% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 86.4% / 13.6% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 64.8% / 35.2% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 36.0% / 64.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 16.8% / 83.2% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 6.6% / 93.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 2.2% / 97.8% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 22.09.2026
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 14.09.2026 away Dep. Riestra 3:0
- 06.09.2026 home Defensa y Justicia 1:0
- 29.08.2026 away Boca Juniors 0:1
- 25.08.2026 home Argentinos Jrs 1:1
- 17.08.2026 home Independiente 1:3
Last 5 matches · latest first
- 12.09.2026 home Platense 2:1
- 06.09.2026 away Velez Sarsfield 0:1
- 31.08.2026 home Newells Old Boys 0:0
- 23.08.2026 away Sarmiento Junin 0:2
- 15.08.2026 home Gimnasia L.P. 4:0
This season: CA Lanus at home vs Estudiantes de La Plata away
| Metric | CA Lanus · at home | Estudiantes de La Plata · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 13 | 12 |
| W–D–L | 5–5–3 | 4–3–5 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.00 | 0.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.77 | 0.75 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 8% |
| Both teams scored | 31% | 17% |
Head-to-head · Last 6 meetings
- 25.05.2024 CA Lanus 2:1 Estudiantes de La Plata
- 16.04.2024 CA Lanus 1:2 Estudiantes de La Plata
- 27.11.2023 Estudiantes de La Plata 1:1 CA Lanus
- 13.02.2023 Estudiantes de La Plata 0:2 CA Lanus
- 10.10.2022 Estudiantes de La Plata 3:1 CA Lanus
- 19.02.2022 Estudiantes de La Plata 2:1 CA Lanus
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
CA Lanus enter this Primera LPF, Clausura meeting with a slight edge over Estudiantes de La Plata. The assessment gives that advantage a high level of confidence, although the overall outlook remains cautious rather than decisive. CA Lanus are the more appealing side in the result market, with the home-or-draw angle supported by the available signal.
The match is expected to be low-scoring, which should keep the contest finely balanced for long periods. A draw remains a realistic outcome, and the projection does not point strongly toward both teams finding the net; that aspect is essentially even. This suggests a game shaped by defensive organisation, limited clear chances, and the importance of taking advantage of isolated moments. Estudiantes de La Plata still have a credible path to a positive result, particularly if they can keep the tempo controlled, but CA Lanus appear better placed overall. The most likely match pattern is a narrow home success or a stalemate rather than an open attacking contest.
What matters before kick-off
Estudiantes squad news and Joaquin Correa injury
Estudiantes head coach Alexander Medina confirmed his squad to visit Lanus, including striker Guido Carrillo in the list. However, Joaquin Correa misses out due to an injury sustained in Sao Paulo.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.