Besiktas Istanbul — Kocaelispor: Win probabilities, 11.10.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 94.1% |
| 12 | 85.6% | |
| X2 | 20.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 48.3% / 51.7% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 96.1% / 3.9% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 87.2% / 12.8% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 67.7% / 32.3% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 46.1% / 53.9% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 27.3% / 72.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 14.1% / 85.9% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Form and head-to-head
Results before kick-off on 11.10.2026
Besiktas Istanbul
3rd place · 12 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 20.09.2026 away Amedspor 2:3
- 11.09.2026 home Erzurumspor 3:0
- 05.09.2026 away Fenerbahce 2:1
- 31.08.2026 home Corum 6:2
- 23.08.2026 away Alanyaspor 0:1
Kocaelispor
4th place · 12 pts after 6Last 5 matches · latest first
- 19.09.2026 home Gaziantep 2:0
- 13.09.2026 away Galatasaray 0:1
- 06.09.2026 home Samsunspor 1:0
- 29.08.2026 away Konyaspor 2:1
- 24.08.2026 home Amedspor 2:0
This season: Besiktas Istanbul at home vs Kocaelispor away
| Metric | Besiktas Istanbul · at home | Kocaelispor · away |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 3 |
| W–D–L | 3–0–0 | 1–0–2 |
| Goals scored per match | 3.33 | 0.67 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.67 | 1.33 |
| xG for per match | 2.15 | 0.68 |
| xG against per match | 0.39 | 1.69 |
| Shots on target per match | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| Corners per match | 8.67 | 3.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 33% |
Head-to-head · Last 2 meetings
- 28.02.2026 Kocaelispor 0:1 Besiktas Istanbul
- 29.09.2025 Besiktas Istanbul 3:1 Kocaelispor
Sources: football-data.co.uk. The league table is calculated from results and does not include point deductions.
Match preview
Besiktas Istanbul come into this Super Lig meeting with a clear qualitative edge over Kocaelispor. The available assessment rates the hosts as clearly stronger, with high confidence in that overall outcome. The scoring outlook is also described as high-scoring, suggesting that the match could offer several attacking moments rather than developing into a tightly controlled contest.
Kocaelispor nevertheless retain a meaningful attacking possibility, as the assessment views both teams scoring as a coin flip. The main signal points toward a home victory, while the listed likely scorelines of 2:0, 3:0, and 1:0 all favor Besiktas Istanbul. Taken together, the information supports a controlled expectation of Besiktas Istanbul having the stronger position, while leaving room for different levels of attacking contribution from Kocaelispor. The key distinction is the hosts' overall strength rather than any certainty about the exact score or whether both sides will find the net.
Other matches
How the probabilities are calculated, what fair odds mean and how accuracy is verified — see the method.