Atletico Madrid — Real Madrid: Win probabilities, 20.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 51.6% |
| 12 | 75.3% | |
| X2 | 73.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 66.0% / 34.0% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 95.2% / 4.8% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 86.0% / 14.0% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 65.0% / 35.0% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 43.0% / 57.0% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 24.6% / 75.4% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 12.3% / 87.7% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Atletico Madrid welcome Real Madrid in LaLiga on 20 September 2026, with the available signals pointing to a competitive but open contest. Real Madrid hold a slight edge in the outcome assessment, and the confidence in that reading is high. The market signal also favours the visitors avoiding defeat, rather than indicating a clear-cut result.
The match is expected to produce several attacking moments, with both Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid likely to score. That combination leaves the draw as a credible possibility, while Real Madrid appear marginally better placed to turn the balance in their favour. The projected scorelines of 1:1, 1:2 and 2:2 reflect a game that could remain close throughout, with the final outcome potentially decided by small details rather than sustained dominance from either side.
What matters before kick-off
Injury absences for Real Madrid
Real Madrid enter the derby with several key casualties, as Éder Militão, Rodrygo, and Ferland Mendy are ruled out through injury.
Atlético Madrid's recent form
Atlético Madrid enter the match on the back of consecutive LaLiga victories, outscoring Real Sociedad (3-0) and Osasuna (4-0) by a combined 7-0 scoreline.
Real Madrid's goalscoring run
Real Madrid scored 17 goals across their opening six LaLiga fixtures of the season, registering five wins and one defeat.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.