Athletic Bilbao — Deportivo Alaves: Win probabilities, 19.09.2026
Final result
Win probabilities
Outcome probabilities after removing the bookmaker margin
Markets
All calculated markets
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Double chance | 1X | 82.9% |
| 12 | 77.1% | |
| X2 | 40.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes/No | 51.2% / 48.8% |
| Totals 0.5 | Over/Under | 93.5% / 6.5% |
| Totals 1.5 | Over/Under | 77.4% / 22.6% |
| Totals 2.5 | Over/Under | 53.1% / 46.9% |
| Totals 3.5 | Over/Under | 30.9% / 69.1% |
| Totals 4.5 | Over/Under | 15.3% / 84.7% |
| Totals 5.5 | Over/Under | 6.5% / 93.5% |
Score probability heatmap
Home goals run vertically; away goals run horizontally
Match preview
Athletic Bilbao enter this LaLiga fixture as the clearly stronger side, although the assessment carries moderate confidence rather than certainty. Deportivo Alaves face a demanding task away from home, with the balance of the matchup favoring the hosts. The main signal points toward a home win, but the available outlook does not suggest an overwhelming gap between the teams.
The game is projected to be medium-scoring, with 1:0 and 2:0 among the most plausible scorelines. That points to Athletic Bilbao having the better chance of controlling the match and limiting Deportivo Alaves, particularly if the hosts establish authority early. However, both teams scoring remains difficult to call, so a 1:1 draw also sits within the realistic range of outcomes. Overall, Athletic Bilbao hold the advantage, while the match may still be decided by narrow margins rather than a high-scoring contest.
What matters before kick-off
Athletic's Midweek Postponement
Athletic Bilbao's midweek La Liga fixture against Levante was postponed due to a waterlogged pitch caused by torrential rain in Valencia.
Deportivo Alavés Injury Concerns
Deportivo Alavés player Aitor Mañas was ruled out after suffering a concussion, while Mikel Rodríguez and Facundo Garcés are recovering from ACL injuries.
AI collected this context from public sources; it does not change the mathematical probabilities.
Other matches
Prediction questions
We remove the bookmaker margin from market odds, estimate each team’s expected goals and build one matrix of possible scores. Outcomes, totals, both teams to score and likely scores all come from that matrix.
Fair odds are one divided by the probability of the main signal. They are a mathematical reference without bookmaker margin, not an offer from a particular bookmaker.
The official prediction is locked before kick-off and is never rewritten after publication. After the final whistle it is checked against the result and added to the public record.
AI does not calculate or change probabilities. It explains the mathematical output in plain language, and the model used is shown next to the analysis.